Category Archives: Mountain West
Round 3: MWC – Put up or Shut up: BCS
Wow.
For a MWC fan this weekend was devastating. While not the end of the world, the MWC’s bite has failed to live up to its bark in week 3. The top of the MWC, its alleged strength, took serious loses and the middle and bottom did nothing to mitigate these losses.
While last week was a minor set back, this week set the MWC back beyond the gain for BYU’s upset of Oklahoma and started to cut into the credibility from Utah’s Sugar Bowl win.
Top
BYU hosted FSU as a 7 point favorite and lost 54-28. As a result, a chunk of their turf will now reside in Tallahassee. They also drop from the top 10 to near #25. Somehow they got a bit of a USC effect and remain above the team that beat them in the coaches poll. This year BYU’s defense began shifting their focus to increase speed. This game showed they still have a lot of work to do here.
Oregon was favored to beat Utah by 4 and covered with a 31-24 win. Utah struggled in the second quarter to get any kind of momentum but managed to close the 14 point gap in the second half. This game made both teams look like they had some serious work to do before going into their conference slate.
TCU came out sloppy against Texas State and allowed them to stay within 14 until TCU went on a 21 point run in the fourth quarter. I can only hope they were looking towards this weeks game at Clemson.
Middle
UNLV scored one of the bright moments for the conference by coming back to beat Hawaii 34-33, helping to verify that the middle of the MWC is better than the middle of the WAC.
Air Force won their first conference game against New Mexico 37-13. Frankly, if New Mexico wins a game in conference this year it will be bad for the conference. They took this spot from SDSU this year.
At the start of the season CSU and Nevada looked like it might be a good test for CSU, but Nevada has struggled mightily since then and the 35-20 win by CSU is diminished. This does solidify their place in the middle of the conference, which was questionable to start the year.
Bottom
SDSU lost their road trip to Idaho 34-20. Apparently the bottom of the WAC is competitive with the bottom of the MWC.
Wyoming was shut out by Colorado 24-0, and Toledo put up 50+ on them? Wyoming is almost right with New Mexico
Summary
The MWC went 0-3 against BCS conference members. While last week brought the middle into question, this week took a bite out of the top of the conference. The MWC has lost the credibility it earned the opening week.
It appears the MWC was enjoying a housing market like bubble which has now burst. The result is that rankings, like housing prices, have restored to their proper market value.
I compared this years week 3 simulated BCS standings with those of the past 2 years. The non-AQ conferences went from 2 to 4 to 4 teams in the top 25 while the MWC went from 0 to 2 to 2. The MWC appears to be near where it sat last year after TCU lost to Oklahoma, which is still far better than they were any year prior.
They will need to finish strong and have a solid bowl season to avoid being dismissed completely.
Must wins
The MWC only has 3 out of conference games this week and really needs to win them all to gain credibility.
2 out of three will maintain the current meh. None of these games will come easy.
TCU travels to the much anticipated game against Clemson.
Utah hosts Louisville in the only game between the Big East and the MWC this season. This game will draw far too much attention in the MWC vs. Big East debate, no matter how the game goes.
New Mexico host in state rival New Mexico State in a largely one sided rivalry. New Mexico is way down as they break in a new coaching staff and should make a game of it. A win here would reduce how bad New Mexico, the likely bottom of the MWC, is perceived.
Conference play
Undefeated CSU is getting a few points in the polls and could make a significant jump with a win over BYU, at the cost of knocking BYU out of the top 25. Getting a fourth team into top 25 striking distance would be a huge plus for the MWC.
Air Force and UNLV should handle SDSU and Wyoming respectively.
Closing
The next installment will be next Tuesday night with the final regular season installment the following week, as only one game out of conference remains after that point.
Once bowl schedules are announced an installment will follow, and the concluding installment will come after the bowls are finished.
P.S. TE and WEA, we need some more SEC and ACC threads. What gives? ; )
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Round 2: MWC – Put up or Shut up: BCS
This week the top MWC teams took a step back from the spotlight and gave an opportunity for the middle of the pack to step up and earn a share of the spotlight. They failed. At least the MWC was spared any catastrophic losses. Last week also helped clarify the middle from the bottom of the MWC.
Top:
BYU soundly handled Tulane. TCU took care of a Virginia team that was nothing like the team they had been anticipating playing all summer. Utah managed to look strong in the 4th quarter after San Jose State brought them through the first 3 tied 7-7. All summer long I thought this looked like a possible trap game, and Utah managed to survive. Al in all, nothing exceptional and Utah might reasonably lose a spot or two in credibility.
Middle:
Air Force lost to Minnesota 20-13. This game was a close fought game between two teams likely to finish in the middle of their conferences. This game was expected to be close but if the MWC want to prove they belong at the next level they need to win these kind of games.
UNLV lost to Oregon State 23-21, having taken their first lead of the game late in the 4th, only to have Oregon State kick a game winning field goal. Oregon State was expected to win so a close game helps this first year coach’s reputation but this is another close game the MWC needs to win to take the next step.
CSU beat Weber State 24-23. I still include CSU in the middle due to their win over Colorado, which is now suspect thanks to Toledo.
Bottom:
Wyoming lost big to Texas 41-10. I was surprise both by the fact they were able to score 10 and that they were able to limit Texas to 41. This was no surprise to anyone, though I don’t think Texas covered the 33 points.
SDSU beat Southern Utah 35-19. This is an improvement from last year when they lost to Cal Poly. This would have been a catastrophic loss.
New Mexico lost to Tulsa 44-10. This game featured a top C-USA team vs. a middle to bottom MWC team. These are the kinds of games the MWC has been on the other side of to build their impressive stats vs. BCS conference members. It is not so fun on the other side of the table.
Summary:
The MWC went 1-3 vs. BCS teams this week and their middle was exposed to legitimate questions about their soundness. A loss to C-USA did not help and allowign FCS teams to keep the game close is not going to cut it. Not a good week for the MWC, though I still give them the lead on the season.
Many of the critical OOC games are over the next 2 weeks and the MWC is no exception. In two weeks the polls will shake out and we will have a far better idea how strong each conference really is.
Expected wins:
BYU hosts FSU in a game that looked evenly matched this summer, but now looks one sided in the MWC’s favor. BYU needs a convincing win to maintain their current favor in the polls.
TCU plays Texas State-San Marcos. Uhm, yeah…
Utah travels to Oregon with the Ducks in do or die mode. Utah has played sloppy in their first games and needs to come out firing this week.
Wyoming at Colorado is an interesting game. Both CSU and Wyoming allowed Weber State to hang close. CSU (and Toledo) make Colorado look silly. If Wyoming does the same I think it is safe to say that Colorado is not as good as Weber State.
Close calls:
CSU hosts a Nevada team I was hot on to start the season until they got decimated by Notre Dame. I expect this game to be close and a win would help raise the credibility of the middle of the MWC.
SDSU travels to Idaho in a game between the bottom of the MWC vs. the bottom of the WAC. SDSU has a history of losing these games and if they want to show they are ready to move up from the bottom of the conference they need to win this game.
Hawaii travels to UNLV in a game I am anxious to see the results of. Hawaii struggled to beat Western Carolina and UNLV hung with Oregon State. A win this week puts UNLV squarely in the middle pack of the MWC.
New Mexico hosts Air Force in the first MWC game of the season. I am looking for Air Force to demonstrate that New Mexico belongs in the bottom of the conference, otherwise the middle is weaker than I had hoped.
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